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Entropic Considerations of Efficiency in the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures Market

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Date Issued:
2016
Summary:
For the last fifty years, the efficient market hypothesis has been the central pillar of economic thought and touted by all, despite Sanford Grossman’ and Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz’ objection in 1980. Andrew Lo updated the efficient market hypothesis in 2004 to reconcile irrational human behavior and cold, calculating automatons. This thesis utilizes 33 years of oil futures, GARCH regressions, and the Jensen-Shannon informational criteria to provide extensive empirical objections to informational efficiency. The results demonstrate continuously inefficient oil future markets which exhibit decreased informational efficiency during recessionary periods, advocating the adaptive market hypothesis over the efficient market hypothesis.
Title: Entropic Considerations of Efficiency in the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Futures Market.
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Name(s): Sagul, Ryan, author
Yuhn, Ky-hyang, Thesis advisor
Florida Atlantic University, Degree grantor
College of Business
Department of Economics
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Electronic Thesis Or Dissertation
Date Created: 2016
Date Issued: 2016
Publisher: Florida Atlantic University
Place of Publication: Boca Raton, Fla.
Physical Form: application/pdf
Extent: 48 p.
Language(s): English
Summary: For the last fifty years, the efficient market hypothesis has been the central pillar of economic thought and touted by all, despite Sanford Grossman’ and Nobel prize winner Joseph Stiglitz’ objection in 1980. Andrew Lo updated the efficient market hypothesis in 2004 to reconcile irrational human behavior and cold, calculating automatons. This thesis utilizes 33 years of oil futures, GARCH regressions, and the Jensen-Shannon informational criteria to provide extensive empirical objections to informational efficiency. The results demonstrate continuously inefficient oil future markets which exhibit decreased informational efficiency during recessionary periods, advocating the adaptive market hypothesis over the efficient market hypothesis.
Identifier: FA00004730 (IID)
Degree granted: Thesis (M.S.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2016.
Collection: FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection
Note(s): Includes bibliography.
Subject(s): Capital market -- Psychological aspects
Energy industries -- Risk management
Financial risk management -- Mathematical models
Futures
Investment analysis
Petroleum industry and trade -- Economic aspects
Stocks -- Mathematical models
Held by: Florida Atlantic University Libraries
Sublocation: Digital Library
Links: http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004730
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004730
Use and Reproduction: Copyright © is held by the author, with permission granted to Florida Atlantic University to digitize, archive and distribute this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.
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Host Institution: FAU
Is Part of Series: Florida Atlantic University Digital Library Collections.